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FXUS66 KSGX 060546
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
946 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty northerly winds through Friday along south-facing mountain
slopes and through the Cajon Pass into the Inland Empire.
Offshore winds turn more northeasterly this weekend and expand to
include all coastal mountain slopes and valleys as a low pressure
system drifts south of the area. This system will bring a slight
chance of showers, mostly in San Diego County, on Monday. Warmer
through Sunday followed by minor cooling Monday and Tuesday, then
much warmer Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Evening Update...
Skies are clear this evening under weak offshore flow. Water vapor
imagery shows the next short wave trough digging south through
interior California. As it moves south tonight, surface pressure
gradients will tighten and upper level support will increase,
driving a resurgence of north to northeast winds across the San
Bernardino Mountains into the Inland Empire and Santa Ana
Mountains. Wind gusts in the prone areas will range from around
35-45 mph with isolated gusts to 50 mph. Winds will briefly weaken
again Friday afternoon. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for
these areas through 4 PM Friday.

Previous discussion...
By Friday evening, a robust shortwave trough will begin to drag
the longwave trough back to the southwest. Current guidance shows
this piece of energy working to strengthen the upper flow as it
moves across southern California sometime early Saturday. This in
combination with a developing surface high over the intermountain
west may cause for quite strong northeasterly winds to surface
along coastal slopes and into inland valleys on Saturday. NBM
probability of exceeding 60 mph gusts in areas surrounding the
Cajon Pass is 60-90%. Thus, a High Wind Watch has been posted for
Saturday along the San Bernardino County coastal slopes and into
the northern Inland Empire. In addition, the northeasterly
direction should allow gusty winds to expand to include all
coastal slopes and inland valleys through the remainder of the
weekend.

As the trough axis continues to dive southwest this weekend, it
will begin to entrain moisture from the ocean. There is a slight
chance for showers, mainly over San Diego County from Sunday
night into Monday. However, guidance continues to trend drier as
the low pushes further south and east with recent model runs.
Regardless, no impacts from precip are expected at this time.

Beyond Monday, there is good agreement that an upper ridge will
move in from the west. Warm and sunny conditions should prevail
through the middle of next week with no signs yet of unsettled
weather, thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...
060545Z....Coast/Valleys...Mostly clear skies then FEW-SCT high
clouds Friday evening. N/NE gusts to 25-35 kts in the Inland Empire
below mountain passes and inland Orange County 08z Fri through 02z
Sat, remaining elevated thereafter. Moderate confidence on winds
reaching 35 kts at KONT and high confidence for 25 kts at KSNA
Friday. Areas of LLWS and mod up/down drafts expected.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear and VFR conditions through Friday
evening. Gusty N/NE winds expected throughout the period: 25-40 kts
with isold gusts to 55 kts through mountain passes and on coastal
facing foothills. Areas of LLWS and mod up/down drafts in lee (south
of) mountains mainly in SBD County. Low confidence on KPSP gusting
to 35 kts Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong northwest winds with gusts up to 25 kts are causing choppy
and hazardous conditions through this evening. A Small Craft
Advisory contains the details. No additional hazardous marine
conditions are expected through Monday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for Orange County Inland
     Areas-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and
     Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-Santa Ana
     Mountains and Foothills.

     High Wind Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
     afternoon for San Bernardino County Mountains-San
     Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE...Westerink

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office