706
FXUS66 KLOX 060608
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1008 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...05/444 PM.

Northerly winds will switch to northeast by Friday morning,
kicking off a moderate Santa Ana wind event that will continue
through Sunday. Temperatures will warm each day through the
weekend, with widespread highs in the 80s by Sunday. No rain is
expected for the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...05/906 PM.

***UPDATE***

A strong low pressure system pushing into the Great Basin continues
to drive pockets of gusty winds over portions of Santa Barbara,
Ventura and LA Counties today. Northerly winds peaked this
morning, with favored higher elevations reaching gusts around 70
mph. This evening, winds have come down a bit but remain strong
over the eastern Santa Ynez Range, the eastern Santa Monica
Mountains and near the I-5 Corridor. Overnight, winds will shift
to the east, with the current wind products looking on track. With
the offshore LAX-DAG gradient expected to peak around 5 to 6 mb
tomorrow morning and the LAX-BFL offshore gradient around 3 mb,
this should support widespread gusty winds for Santa Ana wind
prone areas. Lower confidence in winds for Sunday, but consensus
is they should be weaker, so current thinking is wind advisories
will be needed for early Sunday. Temperatures for the coasts and
valleys may be 2-5 degrees warmer than forecast for the weekend.

***From Previous Discussion***

A cold and dry low pressure system will continue to impact the
region, resulting in areas of gusty winds. Late tonight, the
current northerly winds will shift to out of the northeast. This
will kick off a moderate (to locally strong) Santa Ana Wind event
that will last through Sunday. On Friday there will be
significant cold air advection and associated subsidence, followed
by upper level support on Saturday, thus both days will be
similar windy. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in
effect from late tonight into Saturday afternoon, and may need to
extended into Sunday. For LA and Ventura Counties, gusts of 30 to
45 mph are expected across favored coastal and valley areas and
gusts of 45 to 65 mph are expected across the mountains. The winds
will likely cause hazardous driving conditions due to crosswinds
and debris on the road, and downed trees and power lines resulting
in power outages.

The offshore flow will yield significant warming trend Friday
through the weekend, with many coast and valleys areas likely in
the 80s on Sunday. The warmest temperatures are expected for
Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, where highs 15+ degrees above
normal will be widespread. Minor to moderate heat impacts will be
possible, mainly for outdoor workers and those without air
condition. Expect clear skies through the weekend to go with the
warm temperatures, and very dry humidity. Despite favorable wind
and humidity conditions, there is little fire weather concern due
to recent rains.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...05/226 PM.

Early next week temperatures will trend cooler as the offshore
winds drop off. Tuesday will likely be the coldest day next week,
when most highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. By Wednesay,
another northerly wind event and building high pressure are to
result in a small increase in temperatures. Thursday into late
next week, another warm spell is favored with highs in the 80s
possible again. Dry weather will continue, as there remains no
significant chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...06/0558Z.

At 0508Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a sfc based
inversion with a top of 1500 ft and temp of 18 C.

High confidence in CAVU conds at all sites.

Moderate confidence in wind fcsts.

Lgt-ocnl mdt turbc possible near to and over hier trrn.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU conds. Moderate confidence in
winds. Direction could be off by +/-30 degrees. Any east wind
component will be under 7kt.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU conds. Moderate confidence in
winds. Direction could be off by +/-30 degrees. Lgt-ocnl mdt turbc
possible on approach and departure.

&&

.MARINE...05/725 PM.

For the Outer Waters, GALE Force level NW-N winds are expected to
persist through at least the evening hours, and likely through
late tonight. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are then expected
to continue through Friday night, except through Saturday south of
the Channel Islands. Hazardous steep, choppy seas will likely
continue through late night Friday. SCA level NE winds are likely
Saturday morning for the waters around the Channel Islands & south
to San Nicolas island (PZZ676). Winds are likely to increase again
to SCA levels Monday through Tuesday.

For the waters nearshore along the Central Coast, SCA level NW-N
winds with large, choppy seas expected to continue through late
tonight. Thereafter, conditions are generally expected to remain
below SCA levels through the weekend. Although, cannot rule out
some localized gusts near SCA levels Friday afternoon and evening.
Winds may approach SCA levels again Monday and Tuesday during the
afternoon to evening hours.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, offshore flow is
expected through the weekend, strongest during the evening
through the morning timeframe each day Friday through Sunday.
There is high confidence in SCA winds nearshore from Point Mugu to
Malibu late tonight through Friday morning, with local GALE force
gusts possible. NE winds of similar magnitude and coverage are
likely to return Friday night through Saturday morning. Winds
appear to be somewhat weaker on Sunday at this time. Eastern
portions of Santa Barbara Channel will be impacted by the
offshore winds during same time frame. W-NW winds expected during
each afternoon.

High confidence in ENE winds of 10-15 kts impacting Avalon Harbor
Friday and Saturday morning with 20% chance of winds reaching
25 kts. SCA winds are expected across the San Pedro Channel
through at least Saturday morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 2 AM Friday to 3 PM PST Saturday
      for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369-371>374-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 2 AM PST Friday for zones
      352-356-375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zones
      370-378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect from 2 AM Friday to 3 PM PST
      Saturday for zones 375-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Friday for
      zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Black/CC
SYNOPSIS...RS/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office